Container capacity is determined by two complementary elements - container turnover and fleet turnover. Long-term capacity depends on the shortcoming in the container range and fleet range. The improvement in the utilization rate of container capacity can prevent the container from becoming the system of transportation capacity in 2022.
Short-term capacity is disturbed by factors such as container turnover, ship turnover and ship idle. The increase in container production basically compensates for the negative impact of the decline in turnover efficiency, while port efficiency depends on many external factors and is not very controllable. Short-term transportation capacity can be adjusted by two factors: idle rate and speed. However, in the overheating stage of the market, the upward flexibility of short-term capacity is limited, the speed and idle ratio have reached extreme levels, and the adjustment space is limited.
The port is the bottleneck of supply, which is a reflection of the problems of the US supply chain. The reasons for the port problems include: surge in demand, labor shortages and lack of transportation equipment. The problems of labor shortage and lack of installation will not improve in the short term, and the recovery of the supply chain and the improvement of transportation capacity can only wait for the demand to fall. The magnitude and speed of the drop in demand determines the pace of improvement in supply. The supply recovery process will be very slow. According to calculations, it is estimated that it will take at least half a year to deal with the port problem.
Since the epidemic, container freight rates have continued to rise. As of the beginning of January 2022, the SCFI composite index has increased by nearly 400% compared with the beginning of 2020. From the perspective of the rising rhythm, the freight rate increase can be divided into two stages. The first stage is based on Asia. - A single rise in North American routes, and the second stage is a general rise in global freight rates. The general rise starts at the end of 2020, and the single market is switched to the global general
Various signs indicate that container demand has peaked, but supply bottlenecks continue to disrupt changes in freight rates. How much space for incremental supply, how to improve the bottleneck and how the freight rate will be interpreted in the future are the key points of this paper. This paper is mainly divided into three parts: the complex structure of container transportation capacity will be presented first from the transportation capacity structure, the factors affecting the transportation capacity will be dismantled, and the elastic space of supply will be discussed; port embolism is the bottleneck of container transportation supply, and the second part will focus on the causes of congestion and treatment plan; the third part will separate changes in supply and demand structure,